香港单日新增34466例，本轮死亡近五百，仍未见顶！

2022-03-01 Swagpp MedSci原创

梅斯头条

企业/

香港疫情形势严峻！

25日，新增10010例，死亡47例；26日，新增17063例，死亡66例；27日，新增26026例，死亡83例；28日，新增34466例。

此前香港呼吸系统专科医生梁子超预测“2周后单日新增病例或破万宗”，一语成谶。

公园中戴口罩的香港居民（图源：新华网）

香港单日确诊破万后，仅4天时间，新增人数便从1万级别增长到3万，仍未“见顶”。截至目前，本轮疫情累计确诊病例高达17万，死亡500余人。

根据兰州大学《新冠肺炎疫情全球预测系统》的初步预测，香港本轮疫情预计于2022年5月底左右初步得到控制，预计累计感染约36.1万（26.9-44.5万）。但从现在形势来看，这一预测结果过于乐观。从下图看出，预测香港单日新增于三月初达到高峰，约5000人，但目前数据已6倍不止。

兰州大学对2022.1香港突发新冠肺炎疫情的预测图

为何如此短的时间内，香港确诊人数会大幅度上升呢？

参与指导内地援港抗疫工作专家冯子健在接受采访时表示，“当前香港第五波疫情正处于快速扩散和加速上升期。”社区中存在太多传播链，个案会继续蔓延。

根据香港大学梁卓伟教授团队预测，疫情将于3月中旬左右达到高峰。近期，每日确诊病例数还会持续上升。

此外，确诊病例猛增与特区政府更新检测方式有关。

由于核酸检测能力有限，香港特区政府于25日改变了原有的统计确诊策略，宣布“快速检测呈阳性的市民无需核酸复检，便可被视作确诊者跟进”。

排队购买快速抗原检测的香港居民

香港大学感染及传染病中心总监何栢良表示，设立电子申报平台后，确诊数字会有更大幅度的攀升。好消息是，基于平台的建立，港府可掌握患者的年龄层、有否接种疫苗等数据，协助分析及统计，有助安排治疗设施。

使用快速抗原检测是香港疫情形势驱使下的必然，然而，快速抗原检测相比于核酸检测存在一些缺陷——灵敏度和准确度不高，会出现误诊漏诊的情况。“假阴性”时有发生，即检测者可能已受感染但正处于潜伏期或感染初期，快速抗原检测仍会将其判定为阴性。

快速抗原检测包

如果市民完全相信快速抗原检测的结果，仅凭单次阴性就觉得自己是安全的，可能会因掉以轻心而导致病毒的进一步传播。因此，在有能力的情况下，全民核酸检测还是首选。

近几日确诊人数激增，给香港医疗体系带来了非常大的压力，医疗资源告急，中央的支持刻不容缓。

有消息称，国家卫健委新冠肺炎疫情应对处置工作领导小组专家组组长梁万年，28日赴港协助香港特别行政区政府抗疫。他也是截至目前支援香港抗疫的内地最高级别专家。

本地新闻报道显示，香港医院爆满，大批确诊患者露天候诊。医疗资源明显不够用，当地的床位收治不过来，急需增加床位。为解决相关问题，内地援助的8间方舱医院正在紧锣密鼓地建设中。

在建中的方舱医院（图源：央视新闻）

中日友好医院外科重症医学科（SICU）原主任、新冠肺炎疫情防控专家组成员李刚在接受记者采访时表示，“方舱医院内有大量的病床，病房相对比较简单，收住的主要是需要隔离的患者，以及轻、中症患者。把该住院的病人尽早收住院，早发现早治疗，掐断社区传播，可以减少恐慌。”

方舱医院建立之后，更多的公立医院资源会给到中到重症患者，或会缓解香港目前死亡人数高的情况。

冯子健介绍，当前香港医管局正在努力优化完善病人的评估、分诊和转诊流程，把无症状感染者、一般轻症患者和具有重症风险、需要进行积极医疗干预的患者区分开来，分类进行居家隔离、集中隔离治疗和入院治疗，将宝贵的医疗资源优先运用到最需要治疗的患者身上。

除了医疗资源的援助，内地还组建大约9000人的核酸采样支援队伍，并已经开始培训，可随时按特区政府需求赴港工作。

领导检测及医疗工作专班的国家卫健委医政医管局副局长李大川，27日接受港媒采访时透露，“香港什么时候需要，支援队伍就会什么时候派出。如果广东力量不够，还可以从周边省份，选一些懂粤语或者英语比较好的，经验丰富、能力强的医护人员补充。”

广州“猎鹰号”硬气膜实验室

李大川表示，若港府要求，还可以将样本送到广东省检验，这样每日的检测量可达到120至150万次，远高于此前香港每日最多的30万次。再配合快速抗原检测的使用，是香港现阶段“可以接受”的防疫模式。

在过去一个星期，内地供给香港的医疗物资已快速分发下去，包括1400万个快速抗原测试包、1100万个N95及KN95口罩、35万盒由内地捐赠的抗疫中成药等。除了医疗物资，香港生活必需品供应也大致稳定，由深圳提供的占香港市场80%左右。

抵达香港的物资

香港疫情短时间内突然恶化，给一河之隔的深圳也带来了不小的防疫压力。一方有难，八方支援。香港防疫，不仅仅是香港居民的事儿，也不只是相邻的广东省的事儿，而是整个国家的凝聚。

正如香港财政司司长陈茂波27日所述，“在中央支持下，特区政府的目标是两个月内遏制疫情。”期待香港能早日走出新冠病毒的阴影。

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2022-03-30 ms7000000184987441

全球抗疫

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2022-03-18 rabiby

全民同心抗疫必能取得抗疫的最终胜利！

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2022-03-01 ms7000001165625582

加油

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2022-03-01 ms8000001376264333

赶紧控制

0 0
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2022-03-01 老芽儿

祖国母亲为了孩子，一切都值，一切都会好起来！

107 0
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2022-03-01 xulv123

学习～

97 0

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